Every property "expert" I know is telling clients the same thing right now: prices are down, so it's time to buy the dip. I think that advice misses what has actually changed since the last time this strategy worked.
Australian property is falling in every capital city, and the reasons it worked so well in 2020 simply don't apply in 2026. Interest rates, government policy and immigration have all moved in the opposite direction, and that changes the entire calculation for anyone thinking about jumping back into real estate right now.
Here's why I've been steering capital out of Australian property and into precious metals instead, and what the numbers over the last 90 days say about which asset is actually winning.
Every Capital City Is Falling, and the National Number Is Worse
The numbers across the country don't leave much room for debate. Sydney has fallen by more than 11%, Melbourne by 7%, Brisbane by 7.5%, Adelaide by 5% and Perth by 7%. Nationally, values are down 8.68%.
It goes without saying that real estate hasn't been a good place to keep money lately. But plenty of real estate experts are calling this the perfect buying opportunity, telling everyone to "buy the dip." I think they're wrong, and I'm not the only one.
The 18-Year Property Cycle Says 2026 Is the Wrong Time to Buy
David Bird from Mastering the Markets is a friend of the channel and someone whose analysis I have a lot of respect for. In a recent post, he laid out the 18-year property cycle, showing the peak of the cycle landing around 2026, followed by a much weaker stretch running through to 2030.
If that chart is right, 2030 is probably the excellent time to buy Australian real estate, not 2026. That's exactly why we've made video after video in recent years highlighting the opportunity to exchange overvalued Australian real estate at the end of its long cycle for undervalued precious metals at the beginning of their own long-term cycle.
To be fair to David, he also makes a reasonable point: this doesn't mean every property in the country is doomed, or that there won't be opportunities somewhere. If you're a genuine expert in a specific market, understand the cycle and can identify real value, opportunities will always exist. That's true. But I'm not a real estate expert, and neither is the average investor trying to time a downturn in a market they don't fully understand.
Leverage Cuts Both Ways, and Negative Equity Is Already Here
Leverage is one of the biggest attractions of property. It's also one of the biggest risks, and it cuts both ways.
Using the CoreLogic daily housing index as a reference, Sydney and Melbourne have both dropped more than 10% over the past year. If you'd taken advantage of the government's 5% deposit scheme to enter the market over that period, you'd already be sitting on negative net worth greater than your entire deposit, before even mentioning stamp duty, the rising interest rate environment and the increasing cost of living.
In 2020, that same leverage worked brilliantly, because everything else was moving in the buyer's favour. Rates were held near zero, negative gearing was untouched, and immigration was running at record highs. None of those conditions are in place today.
Rising Rates Are Doing the Damage 2020 Never Saw
Australian property can be considered a housing market, but more precisely, it's a debt market. Most Australians buy a house with a mortgage, so the cost of that debt is incredibly important in the overall cost of housing.
Government bond yields have risen sharply, and that increase filters through to every other interest rate in the financial system: mortgages, cars, credit cards, all of it. That means the cost of paying off debt is about to be much higher for anyone holding a large variable-rate loan, right as many Australians are discovering what negative equity feels like for the first time.
Higher repayments can force struggling sellers into the market, flooding it with extra supply and driving prices down even further. It's the opposite of the setup that played out in 2020.
The Immigration Tailwind Is Reversing
Back in 2020, a wave of migration was one of the quiet supports underneath property prices. Government policy allowed the entry of roughly a million immigrants in a single year, and that demand flowed straight into real estate.
That tailwind is now reversing. One Nation has pledged to cut 750,000 temporary visas, and while it's far from certain they'll win government, they're already shifting the political conversation. Labor and the Liberal Party are both now campaigning on reducing net overseas migration too. Whichever party ends up in charge, the direction of travel on immigration has changed, and that removes one more pillar that made "buying the dip" work so well last time.
Silver vs Property Over the Last 90 Days
Compare all of that to silver. Over the last 90 days, silver is up more than 15%, even after a significant pullback from its highs. Australian property, over the same window, is down around 8.7% nationally.
This is not financial advice. This is insight into what I do with my own money, not a recommendation for what you should do with yours. But when I look at expensive, leveraged property heading into a cycle peak against undervalued gold and silver sitting at the start of their own long-term cycle, the decision isn't a difficult one for me.
If you're thinking about making the same switch, our range covers everything you need to buy gold and silver in Australia and move capital into the metals side of this trade.
What a time to be alive.
Sam from Liberty Bullion.
