Everyone wants to know when silver is going to bottom. I get asked this question constantly. And I understand the frustration. Silver ran from $40 USD to $120 USD in under a year, and is now experiencing a significant pullback. People who bought near the top are hurting, and people sitting on cash are wondering if now is the time to move.
Here is the honest answer: nobody knows exactly when silver will go up again. But that does not mean you are flying blind. There are clear technical levels the analysts are watching, and there is a rational framework for thinking about this that does not require you to be a market genius to follow.
The Short-Term Picture Is Genuinely Unknowable
I am going to be straight with you. In the short term, there are so many variables at play right now that anyone claiming to know the day-to-day direction either has insider knowledge or is talking out of where the sun does not shine.
Geopolitics alone makes precise prediction almost impossible. The situation in the Middle East, the trajectory of US foreign policy, what the Fed is going to do with interest rates. These are not small variables. They are market-moving events that can flip direction overnight.
We have also seen credible reporting of insider trading around Donald Trump's inner circle, with traders accessing information retail investors simply cannot get. That has introduced a layer of noise into precious metals markets that skews the short-term signal significantly.
I am absolutely obsessed with bullion. It is the first thing I think about in the morning and the last thing I think about before I go to sleep. And even I cannot tell you what price is going to do tomorrow. So if someone is telling you they can, be very sceptical.
What the Technical Analysts Are Actually Saying
Having said all of that, technical analysis gives us a useful map of where price could find support. Here are the four key scenarios being discussed by serious analysts right now.
The Elliott Wave analysts $57 USD
This comes from Elliott Wave analysts who have been watching this level since silver topped at $120. Elliott Wave theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, identifies recurring fractal patterns in market prices driven by investor psychology. The thinking here is that we are in a corrective B and C wave sequence, and $57 is where that corrective move completes before silver launches to new all-time highs.
The Logarithmic Chart Resistance Level $54
The third scenario points to $54 USD. This level was called out by Gareth Soloway more than four months ago and has since been echoed by the team at Northstar Bad Charts. The reasoning is straightforward: when price breaks out of a major resistance level the way silver broke through $50, it is common to see a sharp move followed by a deep pullback to retest that breakout zone. On a log chart, that retest level sits at $54.
The Regular Chart Resistance Level $50
Which brings us to $50. On a linear chart, $50 is the historic breakout level, the same resistance that held silver back in 1980 and again in 2011. Some analysts believe a full retest of that level is possible before silver resumes its uptrend.
But I don't care which is right or if they're all wrong
I'm buying the dip anyway. Here is my philosophical approach, and it is one I share with my clients regularly.
I am happy to buy silver at $65 knowing full well it could drop to $57, to $54, or even to $50. Because the alternative, sitting on fiat currency waiting for the perfect entry, carries its own very real risk. What if price bounces from $57 and never sees $54? What if the double bottom already marked the low and silver is already heading back up? You have been waiting, and now you are chasing.
Think about what this metal has already done. Silver went from $40 to $120 in under a year. That kind of move does not happen in cash. It does not happen in a term deposit. The downside volatility we have seen in recent weeks is not a reason to stay away. It is a picture of exactly what this metal is capable of to the upside as well.
The data on day trading is worth keeping in mind here too. Ninety percent of day traders lose ninety percent of their funds within the first ninety days. Every single client of mine who has held precious metals for longer than a year is up. That is not a coincidence. That is what holding a real asset through a bull market looks like.
The Bottom Line
So when will silver go up again? My honest answer is that the bottom is either already in, or it is somewhere between $57 and $50 USD. Either way, we are close. Close enough that trying to time the exact entry is likely to cost you more in missed upside than you would ever save by waiting.
The question that matters is not where the exact bottom is. The question is whether you own any silver when it hits $300 USD an ounce. When the year is 2029 and that number is on the screen, are you going to be kicking yourself that you waited for $4 lower, or are you just going to be glad you got it?
This precious metals bull market is only just beginning. We have had the first taste of what it is capable of. The next leg is going to be something else entirely.
What a time to be alive.
Sam from Liberty Bullion
